Prices and Valuation

[spork2367]

After this topic has come up in several of the for sale threads, I wanted to start a thread devoted to the topic. All opinions are welcome, lets try to keep the animosity and personal feelings out of the thread.

To start off, the fact remains that there likely isn't a first owner out there who will live long enough to even see a 75% return on their investment. With the number of low mileage cars for sale right now, the reality seems to be hitting many second and third owners that they may not see their original investments back either. I can't speak for all those selling their cars, but for the ones staying in the Corvette market, they seem to be buying lightly used C5s and C6s. Likely due to the relatively low costs and cheap and plentiful replacement part and service costs. I know there are lots of comparisons to BMWs, Ferraris, etc. of the same vintage and how astronomical some of their maintenance costs are as a justification to how cost effective ZR1s are, but the fact remains that these are Corvettes, not Ferraris or BMWs. Compared to other Corvettes (C3s, base C4s, C5s, and C6s) the costs of maintaining a ZR1 are relative high.

The era in which these cars were built is a slim market when it comes to collectability regardless. With Porsche 911s and supercars being the exception. Even some earlier cars like the Ferrari 308s have only recently come into the realm of collectability, doubling in price.

The C4 is one of the least liked and least iconic Corvette body styles. While the ZR1 is FAR better looking than the base C4, the average person wouldn't notice the difference. On top of that, the majority of ZR1s are the same damn color, which doesn't help. Even the nicest big block C3s are struggling to break the high 40k mark (L88s being the exception). C5s, C6s, and C7s will likely never be collectible. By the time they are old enough, the electronics will be incredibly fragile and obsolete. My father has a 2004 Lemans Commemorative Edition with 4000 miles on it. He has already accepted that it's just a really nice low mileage driver. The ZR1 not only suffers from the same issue of being electronically complex, but their were even fewer parts made.

Parts are a bit difficult to find, and often expensive. This is compared to the overwhelming majority of other Corvettes. Look at the costs for ECUs and DIS modules recently. Someone could easily buy a car with less than 10k miles and have to immediately drop 2-3k into it to make it reliable with injectors, fuel pumps, coils, vacuum hoses/actuators...etc.

Someone noted in the other thread that Hagerty had ZR1s trending up. That was incorrect. Below are some graphs that pretty much spell out where the ZR1 is and where it is headed as far as valuation is concerned.

The first is just the 3 year trend.

The second is the 10 year trend.

The third is the 10 year with the DJIA and NASDAQ overlayed. The dotted line is the DJIA the solid line is the NASDAQ.



This trending pretty much shows that the car hasn't really appreciated at all in the last 10 years. You can see that it's lost value compared to the market index.

Does that change how I feel about the car? Nope. 3 years ago or so I bought a 1990 ZR1 on a salvage title from a Corvette wrecking yard. I've bought all the parts to fix it, acquired the original wheels from the owner (which he graciously gave me), and stocked up on a few spare parts. When I'm done fixing it, not counting my labor, the car will be worth approximately 3-4k less than what I'll have invested in it. Why did I do it? Because I love the car and that's what I could afford at the time. At this point, the car is worth more in parts than it is as a complete car.

In my opinion, this car will never appreciate beyond what it gains due to inflation. Parts availability, mechanics willing to work on them, electronics, etc. will scare off most buyers and I don't think the market will ever really get started. A lot of cars from that era will suffer the same fate. to the people who hold onto them and keep them running despite their costs.

[gbrtng]

Originally Posted by spork2367

The C4 is one of the least liked and least iconic Corvette body styles.

Your opinion, not mine ...

[Kevin]

The zr-1 isn't that electronically complex, no more so then any other modern car. And while I may not be the best wrench around, let's face it...I'm terrible, it's fairly easy to work on compared to any other c4. Ever try and change the plugs or wires on an l98? I think I still I have scars from that. With rare exception no modern production car is going up in value the way mid years did.

[A26B]

I see 3 graphs but no legend to identify what each line represents on each individual graph, except for the 3rd graph which is identified in the body of the discussion

[Vette73]

As far as the ZR1 being the nicest looking C-4 I definately agree...

As far as the C4 being the least desirable generation, I'm sorry to say I agree also..If you look at all the older generation Corvettes they all cost a pretty penny for nice examples...Basically because in the muscle car era you had a choice of a lot of different engines...

Besides the Z there are no C4s going for any money..Some say the Grand sport C4 brings in money.....I have not checked but I would not even think about buying a grand sport over a Z........

When I bought my Z I knew very little of its design......I did learn fast though with the help of the registry members and have benefited....

One of the things I was suprised about is the lack of aftermarket mods for it.....No superchargers available no buying better flowing heads to slap on either..

I mean yes you can port the heads and port the plenum and I/Hs (which I did the latter two).....Marc's 510 package looks like a decent deal but you figure you would want an exhaust system and a hurst shifter installed, so realistically the bill would be around 11,500.....Some of the members said it best--The hell with the pricing just drive the hell out of it.....

[Z51JEFF]

One thing I find odd. I know the the opinion of the average know nothing could care less about C4s in general but why does GM keep building new Corvettes with C4 styling ques? The interior,no question there and now the GS. I could care less about what anybody thinks about my car,when I bought it the market was in decline but still laid $30,000 for it in 2007. Do I regret it,not one bit,I didn't want a C5,almost bought a new C6 but I bought a ZR-1 because nothing else would fill the void. Going on 9 years and still get a rush everytime I open the garage to see if it's still in there which happens to be every morning when I get home from work. I could give a ratsass about value,when I need a part I will find it and if the cars broke it will sit until I find it.

[spork2367]

Originally Posted by gbrtng

Your opinion, not mine ...

Most people's opinions. In every conversation I've ever had in person or seen online the majority agrees the order of best body style is C2, C1, C3 (I disagree here, but I'm the minority), C6/C7 toss up, C5, C4.

Originally Posted by Kevin

The zr-1 isn't that electronically complex, no more so then any other modern car. And while I may not be the best wrench around, let's face it...I'm terrible, it's fairly easy to work on compared to any other c4. Ever try and change the plugs or wires on an l98? I think I still I have scars from that. With rare exception no modern production car is going up in value the way mid years did.

You go from saying it isn't electronically complex compared to a modern car then compare changing plugs on an L98...

No, it's not more complex in it's systems than a modern car. But we aren't comparing it modern cars. On top of that, I can take my modern car to a dealership where they can plug it into a 10k dollar computer that does 98% of the electrical system diagnostics. That isn't the case with these cars. I also don't believe any current domestic offerings will ever have any real collectability. The ZR1 is complex compared to it's Corvette brethren of the same time period and is arguably even more complex than a C5. Changing plugs is a pain in the *** on most C4s, that's irrelevant. It scares most home mechanics and shops simply because it's relatively unknown.

No, most cars of it's generation are not really going up in value. Like I said in my first post. Nice sorted low mileage cars are struggling to break the low 20k mark.

Originally Posted by A26B

I see 3 graphs but no legend to identify what each line represents on each individual graph, except for the 3rd graph which is identified in the body of the discussion

The different levels are condition, and those aren't terrifically accurate. The solid line seems to be the most accurate representation of current "very good to excellent" cars.

Originally Posted by Vette73

As far as the ZR1 being the nicest looking C-4 I definately agree...

As far as the C4 being the least desirable generation, I'm sorry to say I agree also..If you look at all the older generation Corvettes they all cost a pretty penny for nice examples...Basically because in the muscle car era you had a choice of a lot of different engines...

Besides the Z there are no C4s going for any money..Some say the Grand sport C4 brings in money.....I have not checked but I would not even think about buying a grand sport over a Z........

When I bought my Z I knew very little of its design......I did learn fast though with the help of the registry members and have benefited....

One of the things I was suprised about is the lack of aftermarket mods for it.....No superchargers available no buying better flowing heads to slap on either..

I mean yes you can port the heads and port the plenum and I/Hs (which I did the latter two).....Marc's 510 package looks like a decent deal but you figure you would want an exhaust system and a hurst shifter installed, so realistically the bill would be around 11,500.....Some of the members said it best--The hell with the pricing just drive the hell out of it.....

Truth.

Originally Posted by Z51JEFF

One thing I find odd. I know the the opinion of the average know nothing could care less about C4s in general but why does GM keep building new Corvettes with C4 styling ques? The interior,no question there and now the GS. I could care less about what anybody thinks about my car,when I bought it the market was in decline but still laid $30,000 for it in 2007. Do I regret it,not one bit,I didn't want a C5,almost bought a new C6 but I bought a ZR-1 because nothing else would fill the void. Going on 9 years and still get a rush everytime I open the garage to see if it's still in there which happens to be every morning when I get home from work. I could give a ratsass about value,when I need a part I will find it and if the cars broke it will sit until I find it.

And that's the reason I own a ZR1, but doesn't really say anything about the market value of the car.

[Z51JEFF]

I've had 4 Corvettes over the years,bought an 84 in 1987 and I've followed the ZR-1 from the earliest days back to late 87 early 88. The speculation on the car was rampant like nothing Corvette related today,not even the Mid Engine Zora floating around today. This was when horsepower was on an incline,the thought of 375 HP was unheard of in the U.S. so this kind of power was insane. I've said it from day one and I'll say it again, one of these days the popularity of these cars going to take off then what?One thing I'll be glad to see,people stop bitchin about prices in the toilet and people asking when the markets ever going to turn around for these cars. Personally,I like the idea of driving my car from time to time,if the market goes through the roof that might be able to do that. I can see one day and not too long from now that it will be worth the money I've got into it but that doesn't really matter,my cars not for sale. Got a question for the OP,you posted this basically looking for an argument but specifically not asking for anything negative in the responses from the old timers,what's up with that? What's an old timer,those of us that have been doing the ZR-1 thing for awhile.

[spork2367]

Originally Posted by Z51JEFF

I've had 4 Corvettes over the years,bought an 84 in 1987 and I've followed the ZR-1 from the earliest days back to late 87 early 88. The speculation on the car was rampant like nothing Corvette related today,not even the Mid Engine Zora floating around today. This was when horsepower was on an incline,the thought of 375 HP was unheard of in the U.S. so this kind of power was insane. I've said it from day one and I'll say it again, one of these days the popularity of these cars going to take off then what?One thing I'll be glad to see,people stop bitchin about prices in the toilet and people asking when the markets ever going to turn around for these cars. Personally,I like the idea of driving my car from time to time,if the market goes through the roof that might be able to do that. I can see one day and not too long from now that it will be worth the money I've got into it but that doesn't really matter,my cars not for sale. Got a question for the OP,you posted this basically looking for an argument but specifically not asking for anything negative in the responses from the old timers,what's up with that? What's an old timer,those of us that have been doing the ZR-1 thing for awhile.

I'm looking for a discussion, not really an argument. Nothing in your post indicated what is leading you to believe these are going to take off. They aren't even creeping up, they are dropping in value. And if the market or owner base as a whole agreed with you, there likely wouldn't be so many low mileage cars for sale in the 20-25k range )and not selling).

These cars have been amazing 375-405 HP marvels since the day they came out. If it hasn't increased the value yet, it may not.

[BigJohn]

Looking past all the GM fluff; my C4's still handle better than my newer Corvettes!