Prices and Valuation

[spork2367]

Originally Posted by edram454

It was a 1990 red with tan interior at around 16k miles. it sold for 22.5k.

No. It was red with a gray interior and 24,300 miles. (They didn't actually state the mileage on TV.)

http://www.barrett-jackson.com/Event...TTE-ZR1-195980

Originally Posted by Fully Vetted

I agree to an extent. That's also why I said I would not use a dealer. But the reason they pay the premium is because to everyone except us these cars are scary as hell. All they hear about is the exotic engine and lack of parts. Paying a premium to someone they trust is much better than paying a premium to somebody they don't. But make no mistake about it, there are a lot of these cars being sold at dealerships. Enough so that you can't just ignore them if you're trying to establish a market price and go with what you see at the auctions and eBay.

I agree that many laymen feel better going to a dealer. Dealers are still the minority compared to private party sales though. (I consider eBay's "buy it now" private party as the buyer pays no premium.)

Originally Posted by Fully Vetted

I think we just differ in our philosophy. You're trying to establish a market based on cars that didn't sell and I'm saying you should establish the market based on cars that did sell. Which do you think is more accurate? That eliminates the reason it didn't sell (which I think COULD be how and where it's being sold which you disagree) and only concentrates on cars that are sold, the condition, the year and the sell price.

I can see where you're coming from there. The other side is, if these clean low mileage cars aren't selling for 20-25k and the dealership cars by your account are selling for 30-40k, it's not like the other clean low mileage cars aren't selling because they are priced too low. We can completely and reasonably infer that they are priced too high and that is why they aren't selling. Let's face it, there is some maintenance that a 3400 mile car will inevitably need when you buy it, but so long as it hasn't been wrecked, it really isn't going to be hiding a lot of secrets. Abused cars just don't float around with only 3400 miles on the clock.

[Fully Vetted]

Originally Posted by spork2367

...if these clean low mileage cars aren't selling for 20-25k and the dealership cars by your account are selling for 30-40k, it's not like the other clean low mileage cars aren't selling because they are priced too low. We can completely and reasonably infer that they are priced too high and that is why they aren't selling.

How are they priced too high if the dealership's pricing them (and selling them) even higher? If the cars are equal and they aren't selling at auction but they are selling for more money at dealerships it has to be the venue. I don't think most people trust auctions or eBay. I think generally speaking people trust classic car dealerships. They only make money one way. They don't get any kick backs. There is no service department and they don't sell parts. They depend on word of mouth and repeat business. I think that's how they can get the higher prices.

[Fully Vetted]

Oh, wait. You're saying they're priced too high and not reaching the reserve.. I see. But the point still remains that they ARE selling someplace else for more. Why?

[d15b7]

hi guys. very interesting discussion! I'll chime in with a few thoughts --

1. these trends seem to turn on a dime. about 3-4 years ago, I was thinking of buying a 85-88 TestaRossa. I hemmed and hawwed around, almost buying two different cars (both cars had 20k miles on them, seemed in excellent shape, records, etc) and offered $42-44k one after the other in a 3 month period. both times allllllmost bought the car (first guy wanted $45k; second $47k. of course I stood firm. now those cars are all bringing $100-135k. and it turned around SUDDENLY. btw they made many many TestaRossas. same with the Bandit TAs; those tripled in value in about 24 months. and they made tens of thousands of those things!

2. auctions can be scary, mainly due to the fact that you can't test drive the car. you can't even look at it up on a lift. there is no PPI. all of those things can be arranged at a private sale, or a dealer. but at an auction, it's tough.

anyway, I ended up buying my 90 black/black Z bone stock with 8k miles on it. I am SUPER happy with it!!! but I am still bummed I didn't by the TR -- if I had, I could have flipped it in 3 yrs and bought my Z and had close to $50k left in my pocket lol.

point is, there is no telling ---- our Zs could languish in the $20ks range for a long time. or suddenly they could double - triple in a year or two window. it's very fickle like that.

Todd

PS I watch the auctions mostly for fun; have you noticed that the announcers ALWAYS mention how much they like the ZR-1s? and how they feel that they are undervalued? it's interesting. remember there are millions of viewers that watch these broadcast. maybe some will start buying Zs because of what the announcers are saying!

[spork2367]

Originally Posted by Fully Vetted

How are they priced too high if the dealership's pricing them (and selling them) even higher? If the cars are equal and they aren't selling at auction but they are selling for more money at dealerships it has to be the venue. I don't think most people trust auctions or eBay. I think generally speaking people trust classic car dealerships. They only make money one way. They don't get any kick backs. There is no service department and they don't sell parts. They depend on word of mouth and repeat business. I think that's how they can get the higher prices.

First off, you talk about your buddies dealership and then talk about dealership"s" plural. How many dealerships are you pooling data from? If dealerships are making 10-20k profit on these cars, why aren't they buying every low mileage 20-25k car out there and flipping them for an easy 10k? In the last three years I've watched probably 100 eBay, private party (on this forum and several other venues), and auction sales. With very few exceptions (rare color combinations on later cars) the average price is nowhere near 30-40k.

Most of the cars selling on eBay are not selling in auction style sales, but as buy it now, which is just a private party sale where you pay a percentage to basically advertise on eBay. Any buyer can ask to go look at any one of those cars. There is no rule. And sure, other genuine auctions are a risk. With the exception that Barrett Jackson certainly isn't going to let some turd go across the block on prime time television.

Originally Posted by Fully Vetted

Oh, wait. You're saying they're priced too high and not reaching the reserve.. I see. But the point still remains that they ARE selling someplace else for more. Why?

I don't believe that they are selling for more someplace else. That is what your claim is. I'm not saying it never happens, but high dollar dealership sales are not the typical ZR1 venue. For every five ZR1s I've seen listed on eBay, only one of those five is a dealership. And almost any decent dealership is going to advertise a car like that somewhere. Either eBay, a classic car trader type venue or online search engine for classic cars. They aren't relying on walk ins to see that car and buy it.

Originally Posted by d15b7

hi guys. very interesting discussion! I'll chime in with a few thoughts --

1. these trends seem to turn on a dime. about 3-4 years ago, I was thinking of buying a 85-88 TestaRossa. I hemmed and hawwed around, almost buying two different cars (both cars had 20k miles on them, seemed in excellent shape, records, etc) and offered $42-44k one after the other in a 3 month period. both times allllllmost bought the car (first guy wanted $45k; second $47k. of course I stood firm. now those cars are all bringing $100-135k. and it turned around SUDDENLY. btw they made many many TestaRossas. same with the Bandit TAs; those tripled in value in about 24 months. and they made tens of thousands of those things!

Look at where Porches were 6+ years ago to now. And I'm talking base 911s, not turbos. My sister bought a 1984 911 for 16k and 5 years later it books for like 24k. The Bandit TAs were a fluke. Those two sold at Barrett Jackson, one for high 80k and one for like 108k as I recall. One sold last weekend there for like 30k. They came back down to earth quick.

2. auctions can be scary, mainly due to the fact that you can't test drive the car. you can't even look at it up on a lift. there is no PPI. all of those things can be arranged at a private sale, or a dealer. but at an auction, it's tough.

anyway, I ended up buying my 90 black/black Z bone stock with 8k miles on it. I am SUPER happy with it!!! but I am still bummed I didn't by the TR -- if I had, I could have flipped it in 3 yrs and bought my Z and had close to $50k left in my pocket lol.

Where did you buy yours, out of curiousity?

point is, there is no telling ---- our Zs could languish in the $20ks range for a long time. or suddenly they could double - triple in a year or two window. it's very fickle like that.

Todd

PS I watch the auctions mostly for fun; have you noticed that the announcers ALWAYS mention how much they like the ZR-1s? and how they feel that they are undervalued? it's interesting. remember there are millions of viewers that watch these broadcast. maybe some will start buying Zs because of what the announcers are saying!

They comment every single time. They said on this last one: "watch for these to go up in value...."

[Fully Vetted]

Lol…ok. You're right. Enjoy your study of BJ and eBay sales.


Sent from my iPhone using ZR-1 Net Registry

[d15b7]

ya it seems any aircooled P car ever built has been dragged up into the stratosphere recently lol. I bought mine from a private party; right place at the right time sort of deal. he was moving and needed to sell; it was dead of winter snowstorm after snowstorm. I was the only guy crazy enough to drive a truck and enclosed trailer up into CT in all that (first time I've ever trailered with the truck in 4x4 for hundreds of miles at a stretch)

[Z51JEFF]

For somebody not looking for an argument you're not very good at it. Try and keep in mind here your argu, in a discussion here with people that might know the market just a liiiiiiiitle bit better than you do.

[spork2367]

Originally Posted by Fully Vetted

Lol…ok. You're right. Enjoy your study of BJ and eBay sales.

A response like this tells me that your opinion is based solely on your buddy at one dealership, which is hardly a reasonable sample size. If you have something more than that, feel free to share. I'm genuinely interested.

10 years ago the majority of ZR1 owners probably did buy their cars from dealerships where first owners traded in or dumped the cars when they realized they were only depreciating. The market is completely different now. Despite how stupid you think it is, and how stupid I think it is, TV auctions, eBay, TV shows and and other media sources absolutely drive the prices on many if not most collectors cars. As someone pointed out earlier, those two ridiculous Firebird TAs sold for what they did due to those idiots at gas monkey garage. Look at Hemi Cudas vs. most other hemi cars. Magnus Walker has had a huge influence on 911 prices. I hate that one person can affect an entire market, but in the technology and social media driven society we now live in, that happens every single day.

Do you believe that every BJ and Mecum auction and every eBay sale is an exception out of fear that the car isn't going to be well sorted? Why is it that every one of those sources is showing the same trend while your buddies dealership seems to be the one exception? Maybe he is the exception and not the norm. If 20k is such a smoking deal, by your own statements of what your buddy is selling them for, and the big difference in buying a car at a dealership is because the buyer "knows" it's sorted out and right, shouldn't a low mileage car that's sorted for 25k on the premier forum for ZR1 enthusiasts sell immediately....because it hasn't. Also note that the 11,400 mile black car on eBay is also on here....unsold.

I understand what you're saying about dealerships, buyers, confidence levels, etc., but I believe that was the 10 year ago market, not today's market.

Originally Posted by Z51JEFF

Try and keep in mind here your argu, in a discussion here with people that might know the market just a liiiiiiiitle bit better than you do.

I was hoping for some insight and different opinions, but I was looking for some evidence and empirical data to go with that. There are tens of thousands of people who own collector cars but don't know what the market is doing. Saying that one dealership is selling a handful of them for 30-40k isn't really going to convince me that's where the market is at when I've seen 70-100 examples that don't show that at all. It's statistically unlikely that there are 70-100 coincidences and only a handful of cars that represent the "real" market value.

[8cam]

Marketing.

A private party sale can sit on the market with no action, reducing the price until it finally sells, and only the buyer is happy. But a dealer with the right resources and contacts can market the car and extract a higher price. Happens all the time in the Ferrari world and I can definitely see it with these cars too.