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Old 01-31-2020   #21
spork2367
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: PA
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

Agree completely, which is why I posted that cleaned up chart. If you go on and pull up those cars they vary wildly in condition and mileage, but the sale price spread is much tighter. Which tells me that the average BAT buyer doesn’t understand the difference between an average and excellent ZR-1. Most of the removed cars that fell in that average were clean low mileage 96 convertibles and grand sports. The above average sellers were low mileage grand sports and callaways.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DRM500RUBYZR-1 View Post
That chart, and I am confident that it is correct, is the most convincing evidence to avoid that method of selling a ZR-1.

I am not at all comforted that they can get base C-4 money for a ZR-1.
It is not difficult to (sell?) a $100.00 bill for $ 73.50.

While NCRS will not provide numbers of ZR-1's that have earned a Top Flight,
(that is for you Doug ), one can be sure that it is a very small subset of ZR-1's.
Those judging sheets explain to a buyer exactly what to expect in terms of authenticity, condition, and the cosmetics of the car. the mileage and the repair records validate what to expect in terms of need for repairs etc.

Those are the reasons why that car is worth far more than an average ZR-1, which is certainly already far more than a base C-4.

Those attributes may mean nothing to most of the crowd looking for an auction bargain.

That car does not need "selling".
It will sell itself.
It just needs to be seen by a serious buyer looking for a high quality low mile car.

Best of luck with the sale!!!

Marty
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Old 01-31-2020   #22
Mystic ZR-1
 
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

Quote:
Originally Posted by DRM500RUBYZR-1 View Post
That chart, and I am confident that it is correct, is the most convincing evidence to avoid that method of selling a ZR-1.

I am not at all comforted that they can get base C-4 money for a ZR-1.
It is not difficult to (sell?) a $100.00 bill for $ 73.50.

While NCRS will not provide numbers of ZR-1's that have earned a Top Flight,
(that is for you Doug ), one can be sure that it is a very small subset of ZR-1's.
Those judging sheets explain to a buyer exactly what to expect in terms of authenticity, condition, and the cosmetics of the car. the mileage and the repair records validate what to expect in terms of need for repairs etc.

Those are the reasons why that car is worth far more than an average ZR-1, which is certainly already far more than a base C-4.

Those attributes may mean nothing to most of the crowd looking for an auction bargain.

That car does not need "selling".
It will sell itself.
It just needs to be seen by a serious buyer looking for a high quality low mile car.

Best of luck with the sale!!!

Marty
🤪 Keeps me awake at nite....
Haven’t slept well in years!
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Old 02-02-2020   #23
HIZNHRZ
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

Beautiful car...
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Old 02-04-2020   #24
bowtiguy
 
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mystic ZR-1 View Post
THAT was a very strong sale, especially for BaT! I really thought it would stall out in the mid 30's. Maybe thats not a bad option for me after all.
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Old 02-04-2020   #25
Mystic ZR-1
 
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

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Originally Posted by bowtiguy View Post
THAT was a very strong sale, especially for BaT! I really thought it would stall out in the mid 30's. Maybe thats not a bad option for me after all.
The BaT peanut gallery (all experts...) can be brutal.
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Old 02-04-2020   #26
spork2367
 
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

Quote:
Originally Posted by bowtiguy View Post
THAT was a very strong sale, especially for BaT! I really thought it would stall out in the mid 30's. Maybe thats not a bad option for me after all.
Your car has 10x the mileage that car had. Look at the chart and ask yourself how likely your car is to exceed the other cars that were the most similar.

The ones circled are that last sale and one that is much closer to yours, a 1990 with 10k that sold for 18.5k. Then there is a 1990 with 6.6k that went for 24.7k. What that says, regardless of those being 1990's is that in a world of low mileage cars, there is a huge difference between 900 miles and 9000 miles.

There are a lot of 500-1500 mile ZR-1s out there. Sub 10k is not that rare.

I agree with Marty on this. A specialized dealer is going to get you the best offer. You may just have to wait awhile for mr. right vs. mr. right now (auction buyer).
Attached Images
File Type: png BAT ZR1.png (27.2 KB, 71 views)
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Old 02-04-2020   #27
bowtiguy
 
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

Quote:
Originally Posted by spork2367 View Post
Your car has 10x the mileage that car had. Look at the chart and ask yourself how likely your car is to exceed the other cars that were the most similar.

The ones circled are that last sale and one that is much closer to yours, a 1990 with 10k that sold for 18.5k. Then there is a 1990 with 6.6k that went for 24.7k. What that says, regardless of those being 1990's is that in a world of low mileage cars, there is a huge difference between 900 miles and 9000 miles.

There are a lot of 500-1500 mile ZR-1s out there. Sub 10k is not that rare.

I agree with Marty on this. A specialized dealer is going to get you the best offer. You may just have to wait awhile for mr. right vs. mr. right now (auction buyer).

Based on model year / mileage for one auction site. I'd have to agree with you. As I stated before BaT hasn't been kind to these cars. However, there also tends to be a feeding friendsy Phenomenon with "under the radar" cars on BaT ( supras for example.)

What the BaT chart doesn't take into consideration is....

1) overall condition
2) were all known service items addressed?
3) documentation?
4) NCRS awards?

Not really an apples to apples comparison w/o taking everything into consideration.

Another unknown would be the european market over the next 12 months, I wonder how many 90's are heading "across the pond" this year.

On a positive note, the BJ sale and the latest BaT sale show there is some strength in the market for C4 ZR-1's. Not that many of the registry owners are going to rush their cars to market because of it. I even plan to buy another (modified) Z once this car finds a new home.
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Old 02-04-2020   #28
DRM500RUBYZR-1
 
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

"One can only BUY it for peanuts if one agrees to sell it for same"
"Seems Foolish to me"
12-23-1998
Marty- LONGTIME ZR-1 lover
1993 Ruby DRM 500 ZR-1 Multiple NCRS Top Flight "Modified " car
Owned for 24 years, never to be sold.

Marty
NCRSZR1 (NJ)
AKA
1FUNZR1 (NJ)

Last edited by DRM500RUBYZR-1; 02-04-2020 at 11:38 PM.
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Old 02-05-2020   #29
spork2367
 
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

Quote:
Originally Posted by bowtiguy View Post
On a positive note, the BJ sale and the latest BaT sale show there is some strength in the market for C4 ZR-1's.
A little statistical analysis shows that the market trend is still on a downward slope. If you believe that in general, mileage and condition go hand in hand (and they almost always do), you can come up with a formula that adjusts all the prices removing mileage(condition) as a variable to just look at the trend of average selling price over time. I did it based on two calculations. One using just the data from BAT sales and one assuming a 0 mile car is worth 60k and a 50,000 mile car is worth 17k.

When you adjust the BAT values based on the slope intercept formula derived from those graphs, you end up with a market trend graph for the sales adjusted for mileage. Both show a steady decline in average selling price. Which frankly, matches Hagerty's charts as well. The Hagerty trend shows average selling price dropping around 3k from 5/17 to 1/20. My derived data from the BAT sales shows a drop of around 3.5k from 1/17-1/20.
Attached Images
File Type: png 60k.png (17.4 KB, 83 views)
File Type: png BAT slope.png (11.1 KB, 71 views)
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Old 02-05-2020   #30
DRM500RUBYZR-1
 
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Default Re: FS: 1991 Chevrolet ZR-1 NCRS Top Flight (99.5%) survivor. 9894 miles

Quote:
Originally Posted by spork2367 View Post
A little statistical analysis shows that the market trend is still on a downward slope. If you believe that in general, mileage and condition go hand in hand (and they almost always do), you can come up with a formula that adjusts all the prices removing mileage(condition) as a variable to just look at the trend of average selling price over time. I did it based on two calculations. One using just the data from BAT sales and one assuming a 0 mile car is worth 60k and a 50,000 mile car is worth 17k.

When you adjust the BAT values based on the slope intercept formula derived from those graphs, you end up with a market trend graph for the sales adjusted for mileage. Both show a steady decline in average selling price. Which frankly, matches Hagerty's charts as well. The Hagerty trend shows average selling price dropping around 3k from 5/17 to 1/20. My derived data from the BAT sales shows a drop of around 3.5k from 1/17-1/20.

Nice work!!!
Marty
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