Further testing, I put the meter on D7 off the ECM and with no key in the ignition, OL. With key in but off, OL. With ignition turned ON, I get a cycling resistance to OL, repeating over and over. No idea what that means.
I also figured out which key code I have, and for $26 from Ecklers I can order the VATS bypass which is nice and clean, no soldering required. I wouldn't miss it at all. But the question is, would that fix the problem? For 26 bucks I'm inclined to order it anyway.