Remaining ZR-1's

[Figure8it]

I watched an interesting video on YouTube from VetOnVette757 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjspFvVvxgyyamDHPJhYeJw where he discussed the topic of how many C5's are remaining and came up with a formula using an average attrition rate of 2.5%. Based on some factors the numbers may be higher or lower for a Corvette, especially the C4 ZR-1.

Many collectors were expecting the ZR-1 in 1990 and were given advanced notice of the last year of production for 1995. It could have been very reasonable to consider buying the car as an investment and not driving them often. I now see a lot of low mileage cars that have been for sale when I see them.

Using this methodology, what do you think of the numbers below? Do you think there are more or less cars based on the "statistics" of what should be a normal attrition rate? What about the collector aspect?

Here is the formula

In 1990 there were 3032 made (0.975 ^ 32 = 44%) so 3032 *.44 = 1334 remaining... Repeated below....
1991 2044 (0.975 ^ 31 = 46%) = 940
1992 502 (0.975 ^ 30 = 47%) = 236
1993 448 (0.975 ^ 29 = 48%) = 215
1994 448 (0.975 ^ 28 = 49%) = 220
1995 448 (0.975 ^ 27 = 50%) = 224

Total Remaining = 3169 +/- 10%?

[tiegsd]

Probably a decent ballpark number to start with.

Somewhere along the line I'd think the 2.5% attrition goes out the window as a reliable number for a unique car like the ZR-1, but who knows. Surprised no one really tracks this kind of stuff, other than possibly insurance companies as mentioned in the video.

[GOLDCYLON]

I bet there are less than 4K left due to accidents, floods, fires, natural disasters, thefts, exports to the beyond etc. etc.

[tccrab]

There used to be a spread sheet on the ZR-1 Registry website that tracked known lost ZR-1's, but it was removed some years ago.

I still have a copy somewhere in my archives.
But more to the point, ZR-1's don't get driven as much as regular cars so I'd expect that the attrition rate is much smaller than standard cars.
I'd be willing to bet there a lot more ZR-1's still surviving that the statistics would predict.
It always amazes me how many 0 mile cars seem to pop up on eBay, there was a stupid amount of Z's that were bought and squirreled away.



'Crabs

[Figure8it]

I think there have been many "protected/stored" cars, especially 90's and 95's. Seeing these super low mileage examples are really special for the history.

But we all know how fantastic this car was on the track. While special, there were plenty willing to push these cars to their limits and beyond which may also play a factor into cars lost.

Something to think about as we drive our cars. I bought mine to drive and enjoy but it's crazy to realize that there could be less than 50% of Z's still around. Car shows, gas stations, etc. there is always someone amazed to see it there. Just like I am...

[Dynomite]

Here is the formula

In 1990 there were 3032 made (0.975 ^ 32 = 44%) so 3032 *.44 = 1334

I have number 3032 :)

[DRM500RUBYZR-1]

So I guess this Thanksgiving we need to also be thankful for:

1- climate change and polluters that add to it like elites in jets going to save the earth conferences and politicians paying $20 billion in (reparations?).
2- crummy and inattentive drivers
3- race car floggers

Each contribute in their own special way to the rarity of our ZR-1's, thus increasing the value of our cars.
My dinner guests Thursday may be confused when I say grace...................

Have a Happy(er) Thanksgiving!
:cheers:
Marty

[Figure8it]

I have number 3032 :)

That's super cool. Last of the batch!

[LGAFF]

I did the math on this years ago based on collectable vehicle data... remember the Z was not driven as a daily like a C5....

[LGAFF]

http://www.zr1.net/forum/showthread.php?p=146693

You only see 6-10 Zs a year at the salvage yards tops.... so the attrition rate is low vs other models

[Figure8it]

I did the math on this years ago based on collectable vehicle data... remember the Z was not driven as a daily like a C5....

That's a good point about the C5. Using the data in the old post, with a .06% attrition rate here are the numbers...

In 1990 there were 3032 made (0.994 ^ 32 = 82%) so 3032 *.82 = 2486 remaining... Repeated below....
1991 2044 (0.994 ^ 31 = 83%) = 1697
1992 502 (0.994 ^ 30 = 83%) = 417
1993 448 (0.994 ^ 29 = 84%) = 376
1994 448 (0.994 ^ 28 = 84%) = 376
1995 448 (0.994 ^ 27 = 85%) = 381

Total Remaining = 5733 +/- 10%?

5733 is a much larger number than the original calculation I used to get the 3169 above. I hope it's a more accurate reflection since many have been so well preserved and enjoyed.

[WARP TEN]

Whenever I did writeups for shows on my 1995 ZR-1 I always stated that I thought that with attrition, there were probably fewer than 400 '95s left in the world. So that calculation fits my theory. --Bob